13/03/2024 - Neodecortech S.p.A.: FY 2023_WebSim

[X]
Fy 2023_websim

Milan, 13 March 2024

Italian Equity Research - FY23 Results

NEODECORTECH

BUY

Sector: Industrials

Price: Eu3.03 - Target: Eu4.50

2023: Resilienza in un mercato sfidante

Chiara Tavazzi +39-02-77115.451

chiara.tavazzi@intermonte.it

Stock Rating

Rating:

Unchanged

Target Price (Eu):

from 4.16 to 4.50

2024E

2025E

2026E

Chg in Adj EPS

0.0%

0.0%

Next Event

1Q24 Results Out 9 May

NEODECORTECH - 12M Performance

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

m-23

m-23

l-2 3

s-23

n-2 3

g-2 4

NE ODECO RTE CH

NEODECO RTECH Rel. to F TSE Al l Shares (Reb. )

Stock Data

Reuters code:

NDT.MI

Bloomberg code:

NDT IM

Performance

1M

3M

12M

Absolute

-3.5%

9.4%

-16.5%

Relative

-10.4%

-1.7%

-38.3%

12M (H/L)

3.59/2.72

3M Average Volume (th):

7.78

Shareholder Data

No. of Ord shares (mn):

14

Total no. of shares (mn):

14

Mkt Cap Ord (Eu mn):

43

Total Mkt Cap (Eu mn):

43

Mkt Float - Ord (Eu mn):

18

Mkt Float (in %):

41.4%

Main Shareholder:

Finanziaria Valentini S.p.A

58.6%

Balance Sheet Data

Book Value (Eu mn):

81

BVPS (Eu):

5.70

P/BV:

0.5

Net Financial Position (Eu mn):

-26

Enterprise Value (Eu mn):

69

Risultati FY23 in linea con le attese. I ricavi FY23 sono stati pari a 161,6 milioni di euro (-17.7% YoY), il confronto su base annua resta penalizzante a causa di un 1H22 che ha registrato volumi record. Su base trimestrale il fatturato risulta sostanzialmente in linea con il trimestre precedente, escludendo la divisione energia. I fermi produttivi della centrale elettrica (87 giorni in totale) hanno determinato una perdita di fatturato di circa 10 milioni di euro nell'anno. L'EBITDA

  • stato pari a 13,9 milioni di euro (-13.1% YoY), con una sostanziale tenuta dei margini, pari all'8,6% (vs 8,1% FY22). L'utile netto si attesta a Eu2,8mn, ed evidenzia un calo significativo rispetto agli 8,4 milioni di euro del FY22; è necessario però precisare che quest'ultimo incorporava gli effetti positivi della posta straordinaria MICA per 3,8 milioni di euro.

Dettaglio dei ricavi Q4 per business unit. Per quanto concerne le due divisioni attinenti al core business della società, nonostante la flessione dei ricavi su base annua, legata da un lato ad un rallentamento generale della domanda e dall'altro ad una riduzione dei prezzi unitari di circa il 5-7%, il confronto trimestrale sembra essere leggermente migliore. Nel Q4 società ha registrato rispettivamente Eu17.7mn di ricavi per quanto riguarda la Carta Decorativa Stampata (+8.6% YoY, + 12.5% QoQ), ed Eu14.5mn per la carta Decorativa (-7.6% YoY, +12.5% QoQ). La divisione Energia ha registrato ricavi per circa Eu4.3mn (-68%YoY,-57%QoQ), importante flessione legata al fermo dell'impianto energetico a causa del blocco anticipato della procedura di massimizzazione da parte delle autorità competenti.

  • necessario precisare che l'impianto energetico è tornato in funzione a pieno regime dall'11 dicembre 2023, in seguito alla pubblicazione del Decreto Energia, dopo un periodo di stop protrattosi da ottobre 2023.

Forte miglioramento della PFN. L'indebitamento netto si attesta ora a Eu25.9mn (rispetto ai Eu30.7mn del FY22 e ai Eu36mn 9M23), con investimenti per Eu6,5mn. Questo importante miglioramento è dovuto all'incasso da parte della società degli incentivi governativi spettanti per la divisione energetica, che hanno più che controbilanciato gli investimenti relativi a nuovi impianti e macchinari, tra cui la nuova linea di impregnazione entrata in funzione ad inizio 2024, oltre che al miglioramento ed efficientamento degli impianti e macchinari esistenti.

BUY confermato, nuovo target price Eu4,50 (da Eu4,16). I risultati comunicati sono sostanzialmente in linea con le nostre attese, ed evidenziano come, in un contesto macroeconomico internazionale e nazionale sfidante, la società sia riuscita a mantenere la propria marginalità. Alla luce di questi ultimi confermiamo la nostra visione positiva sul titolo basata sull'attesa di una completa ripresa del portafoglio ordini, un miglioramento della marginalità e di una forte generazione di cassa. Il nostro nuovo target, basato su valutazione dcf, riflette il decremento del risk-freerate.

Key Figures & Ratios

2021A

2022A

2023A

2024E

2025E

Sales (Eu mn)

176

196

162

178

184

EBITDA Adj (Eu mn)

18

16

14

18

21

Net Profit Adj (Eu mn)

7

6

3

6

7

EPS New Adj (Eu)

0.492

0.408

0.200

0.391

0.504

EPS Old Adj (Eu)

0.492

0.408

0.200

0.391

0.504

DPS (Eu)

0.089

0.139

0.145

0.155

0.165

EV/EBITDA Adj

4.6

5.1

5.1

3.7

3.1

EV/EBIT Adj

9.0

13.4

15.4

7.3

5.5

P/E Adj

6.2

7.4

15.1

7.8

6.0

Div. Yield

2.9%

4.6%

4.8%

5.1%

5.4%

Net Debt/EBITDA Adj

1.6

1.9

1.9

1.4

1.0

The reproduction of the information, recommendations and research produced by Intermonte SIM contained herein, and any of its parts, is strictly prohibited. None of the contents of this document may be shared with third parties without Company authorization. Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report

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www.intermonte.it

NEODECORTECH - Key Figures

Profit & Loss (Eu mn)

2020A

2021A

2022A

2023A

2024E

2025E

Sales

128

176

196

162

178

184

EBITDA

15

18

16

14

18

21

EBIT

5

9

6

5

9

12

Financial Income (charges)

-1

-1

3

-2

-2

-2

Associates & Others

0

0

0

0

0

0

Pre-tax Profit

4

8

9

3

7

9

Taxes

-1

-1

-1

0

-2

-2

Tax rate

13.0%

16.6%

8.7%

-9.2%

22.0%

22.0%

Minorities & Discontinued Operations

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Profit

4

7

8

3

6

7

EBITDA Adj

15

18

16

14

18

21

EBIT Adj

5

9

6

5

9

12

Net Profit Adj

4

7

6

3

6

7

Per Share Data (Eu)

2020A

2021A

2022A

2023A

2024E

2025E

Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Average

14

14

14

14

14

14

Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Year End

14

14

14

14

14

14

EPS f.d

0.262

0.492

0.593

0.200

0.391

0.504

EPS Adj f.d

0.262

0.492

0.408

0.200

0.391

0.504

BVPS f.d

4.562

5.181

5.435

5.448

5.698

6.061

Dividend per Share ORD

0.139

0.089

0.139

0.145

0.155

0.165

Dividend per Share SAV

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Dividend Payout Ratio (%)

53.2%

18.0%

23.4%

72.4%

39.7%

32.8%

Cash Flow (Eu mn)

2020A

2021A

2022A

2023A

2024E

2025E

Gross Cash Flow

13

15

18

12

14

16

Change in NWC

-2

3

-9

2

-4

-0

Capital Expenditure

-6

-10

-9

-6

-9

-9

Other Cash Items

0

0

0

0

0

0

Free Cash Flow (FCF)

4

8

-0

8

1

6

Acquisitions, Divestments & Other Items

-2

4

1

0

0

0

Dividends

-2

-1

-2

-2

-2

-2

Equity Financing/Buy-back

0

0

0

0

0

0

Change in Net Financial Position

1

11

-1

5

0

5

Balance Sheet (Eu mn)

2020A

2021A

2022A

2023A

2024E

2025E

Total Fixed Assets

81

82

81

78

78

79

Net Working Capital

28

26

35

33

24

25

Long term Liabilities

-8

-8

-8

-7

4

3

Net Capital Employed

102

100

108

103

107

107

Net Cash (Debt)

-40

-29

-31

-26

-26

-21

Group Equity

62

70

77

77

81

86

Minorities

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Equity

62

70

77

77

81

86

Enterprise Value (Eu mn)

2020A

2021A

2022A

2023A

2024E

2025E

Average Mkt Cap

38

53

51

45

43

43

Adjustments (Associate & Minorities)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash (Debt)

-40

-29

-31

-26

-26

-21

Enterprise Value

78

83

82

71

69

64

Ratios (%)

2020A

2021A

2022A

2023A

2024E

2025E

EBITDA Adj Margin

11.4%

10.3%

8.1%

8.6%

10.3%

11.1%

EBIT Adj Margin

4.3%

5.2%

3.1%

2.9%

5.3%

6.2%

Gearing - Debt/Equity

64.7%

41.6%

39.8%

33.4%

31.7%

23.9%

Interest Cover on EBIT

3.9

7.6

nm

2.3

4.0

4.9

Net Debt/EBITDA Adj

2.7

1.6

1.9

1.9

1.4

1.0

ROACE*

5.4%

9.2%

5.9%

4.4%

9.0%

10.8%

ROE*

5.8%

10.1%

7.9%

3.7%

7.0%

8.6%

EV/CE

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.6

EV/Sales

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

EV/EBITDA Adj

5.4

4.6

5.1

5.1

3.7

3.1

EV/EBIT Adj

14.3

9.0

13.4

15.4

7.3

5.5

Free Cash Flow Yield

9.6%

19.0%

-1.1%

18.1%

2.7%

14.2%

Growth Rates (%)

2020A

2021A

2022A

2023A

2024E

2025E

Sales

-3.9%

38.0%

11.4%

-17.7%

10.2%

3.5%

EBITDA Adj

-8.4%

24.1%

-11.9%

-13.1%

32.1%

11.8%

EBIT Adj

-23.0%

68.1%

-33.8%

-24.0%

103.7%

21.8%

Net Profit Adj

-38.0%

89.2%

-13.3%

-50.9%

95.0%

28.9%

EPS Adj

-39.9%

88.0%

-17.0%

-50.9%

95.0%

28.9%

DPS

-8.8%

-36.3%

56.9%

4.2%

6.9%

6.5%

*Excluding extraordinary items

Source: Intermonte SIM estimates

2

DETAILS ON STOCKS RECOMMENDATION

Stock NAME

NEODECORTECH

Current Recomm:

BUY

Previous Recomm:

BUY

Current Target (Eu):

4.50

Previous Target (Eu):

4.16

Current Price (Eu):

3.03

Previous Price (Eu):

2.80

Date of report:

13/03/2024

Date of last report:

09/11/2023

3

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The main methods used to evaluate financial instruments and set a target price for 12 months after the investment recommendation are as follows:

  • Discounted cash flow (DCF) model or similar methods such as a dividend discount model (DDM)
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Frequency of research: quarterly.

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BUY: stock expected to outperform the market by over 25% over a 12 month period;

OUTPERFORM: stock expected to outperform the market by between 10% and 25% over a 12 month period;

NEUTRAL: stock performance expected at between +10% and - 10% compared to the market over a 12 month period;

UNDERPERFORM: stock expected to underperform the market by between -10% and -25% over a 12 month period;

SELL: stock expected to underperform the market by over 25% over a 12 month period.

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As at 31 December 2023 Intermonte's Research Department covered 117 companies. Intermonte's distribution of stock ratings is as follows:

BUY:

26.02 %

OUTPERFORM:

47.15 %

NEUTRAL:

26.02 %

UNDERPERFORM

00.81 %

SELL:

00.00 %

The distribution of stock ratings for companies which have received corporate finance services from Intermonte in the last 12 months (51 in total) is as follows:

BUY:

38.78 %

OUTPERFORM:

51.02 %

NEUTRAL:

10.20 %

UNDERPERFORM

00.00 %

SELL:

00.00 %

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Neodecortech S.p.A. ha pubblicato questo contenuto il 13 marzo 2024 ed è responsabile delle informazioni in esso contenute. Distribuito da Public, senza apportare modifiche o alterazioni, il 13 marzo 2024 11:24:30 UTC.

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