25/03/2025 - Neodecortech S.p.A.: FY 2024 WebSim

Milan, 25 March 2025

Italian Equity Research - 4Q24 Results

NEODECORTECH

BUY

Sector: Industrials

Price: Eu2.96 - Target: Eu4.80

4Q24 sopra le attese: ricavi, margini e utile in espansione

FY24: chiusura solida nonostante la debolezza della domanda. Nonostante il calo

Target Price (Eu):

2025E

2026E

2027E Chg in Adj EPS

37.0%

33.8%

con un EBITDA di €16.6mn (+20% YoY), riportando la marginalità nell'intorno del 10%. Al di sotto dell'EBITDA, l'utile netto si è attestato pari a €4mn (+40% YoY) consentendo di proporre un dividendo di €0.15 per azione.

Next Event

1Q25 Results Out 14 May 2025

NEODECORTECH - 12M Performance

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.4

Divisione energetica protagonista del 2024. La performance di Bioenergia ha rappresentato il principale driver di crescita dell'anno. L'impianto ha operato a pieno regime nell'ambito del regime dei Prezzi Minimi Garantiti (PMG), dopo un 2023 segnato da diverse interruzioni operative. L'incremento dei ricavi della divisione energetica, pari a €16mn su base annua, ha compensato il calo registrato dalle due divisioni core. Il contributo della divisione è stato rilevante anche sul profilo finanziario: l'indebitamento finanziario netto si attesta a €33.1mn al 31 dicembre 2024 (vs €39.1mn al 30 settembre 2024 e €25.9mn al 31 dicembre 2023), includendo €18mn di crediti per incentivi di Bioenergia ancora da monetizzare.

m-24

l-24

s-24

n-24

g-25

m-25

Sorprendente 4Q24: crescita robusta di ricavi e utile. Neodecortech ha chiuso il quarto trimestre con ricavi pari a €47mn (+17% YoY, +30% QoQ), riportandosi quasi ai livelli del 2022. La redditività ha registrato un deciso miglioramento: EBITDA a €5.5mn (+116% YoY, +30% QoQ), con un margine dell'11.7%, in netto rialzo rispetto al 6.4% del 4Q23 e stabile rispetto al trimestre precedente. Il risultato netto torna in territorio positivo, passando dalla perdita di €0.3mn nel 4Q23 a un utile di €1.8mn (+95% QoQ).

NEODECORTECH

NEODECORTECH Rel. to FTSE All Shares (Reb.)

Stock Data Reuters code: Bloomberg code: Performance Absolute Relative 12M (H/L) NDT.MI NDT IM

1M

3M

12M

4.6% 5.7% -3.0%

3.2% -9.1% -16.1% 3.33/2.70

Stime FY25-26 riviste a rialzo. Alla luce dei risultati pubblicati, rivediamo al rialzo le nostre stime. Abbiamo incrementato le stime dei ricavi per il FY25-26 rispettivamente del +7% e +7.5%, sostenute dai primi segnali di ripresa nel portafoglio ordini delle divisioni core nei primi mesi del 2025. La revisione riguarda anche l'EBITDA: +17.3% per il 2025 e +18.4% per 2026, con una marginalità stabilmente superiore al 10%. Ci attendiamo inoltre un ulteriore graduale miglioramento dell'indebitamento finanziario netto, stimato a €18mn entro fine 2026, grazie all'incasso dei crediti residui legati agli incentivi governativi. Come di consueto, la Società non ha fornito una guidance quantitativa.

3M Average Volume (th): 5.52

No. of Ord shares (mn): 14

Total no. of shares (mn): 14

BUY, target price €4.80 (precedente €4.30). Confermiamo il nostro giudizio positivo in attesa dei dati del 1Q25, che potrebbero segnalare un contesto di mercato finalmente più favorevole. La revisione al rialzo delle stime, combinata con il rollover della valutazione DCF, porta a un incremento del target price, che sale da €4.30 a €4.80. Agli attuali prezzi di borsa, il titolo presenta un potenziale upside del 60% c.a.

Mkt Cap Ord (Eu mn): 42

Total Mkt Cap (Eu mn): 42

Mkt Float - Ord (Eu mn): 17

Mkt Float (in %): 41.4% Main Shareholder:

Finanziaria Valentini S.p.A 58.6%

Book Value (Eu mn): 83

BVPS (Eu): 5.81

P/BV: 0.5

Net Financial Position (Eu mn): -22

Key Figures & Ratios Sales (Eu mn) EBITDA Adj (Eu mn) Net Profit Adj (Eu mn) EPS New Adj (Eu) EPS Old Adj (Eu) DPS (Eu) EV/EBITDA Adj EV/EBIT Adj P/E Adj Div. Yield

2023A

2024A

2025E

2026E

2027E

162

169

173

176 181

14

17

17

18 19

3

4

4

5 6

0.200

0.285

0.296

• 0.345 0.398

  0.200

  0.159

  0.216

• 0.258 0.312

  0.141

  0.150

  0.155

• 0.172 0.199

  5.1

  4.6

  3.7

  3.4 3.0

  15.4

  10.3

  8.3

  7.4 6.6

  14.8

  10.4

  10.0

  8.6 7.4

  4.8%

  5.1%

  5.3%

• 5.8% 6.7%

Enterprise Value (Eu mn): 64

Net Debt/EBITDA Adj

1.9

2.0

1.3

1.0 0.8

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DETAILS ON STOCKS RECOMMENDATION
Stock NAME	NEODECORTECH
Current Recomm:	BUY	Previous Recomm:	BUY
Current Target (Eu):	4.80	Previous Target (Eu):	4.30
Current Price (Eu):	2.96	Previous Price (Eu):	2.90
Date of report:	25/03/2025	Date of last report:	15/11/2024

3

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Neodecortech S.p.A. ha pubblicato questo contenuto il 25 marzo 2025 ed è responsabile delle informazioni in esso contenute. Distribuito da Public, senza apportare modifiche o alterazioni, il 25 marzo 2025 08:50:11 UTC.