Milan, 07 August 2025
Italian Equity Research - 2Q25 Results
NEODECORTECH BUY
Sector: Industrials Price: Eu3.06 - Target: Eu4.95
Trimestre in accelerazione e nuove leve per la crescita
Chiara Tavazzi +39-02-77115.451
Stock Rating
Rating: Unchanged
Target Price (Eu): from 4.80 to 4.95
|
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
|
Chg in Adj EPS |
9.1% |
8.8% |
7.9% |
NEODECORTECH - 12M Performance
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
a-24 o-24 d-24 f-25 a-25 g-25 a-25
NEODECORTECH
NEODECORTECH Rel. to FTSE All Shares (Reb.)
Stock Data
Reuters code: NDT.MI
Bloomberg code: NDT IM Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute 3.4% 8.5% -1.9%
Relative -0.1% 2.0% -33.1%
12M (H/L) 3.21/2.52
si è chiuso con un set di risultati in miglioramento sia su base annua che trimestrale, nonostante una domanda ancora stabile nel settore dell'arredo. I ricavi consolidati, pari a €90.4mn (+6% YoY), beneficiano in particolare della performance di Bioenergia (+50.6% YoY), che ha operato a pieno regime grazie a un contesto favorevole nei prezzi dell'energia, compensando la flessione delle divisioni core. L'EBITDA si attesta a €9.2mn (+34% YoY), con un margine in crescita al 10.2% grazie al contenimento dei costi e a una dinamica favorevole delle materie prime. L'utile netto più che raddoppiato è pari a €2.8mn, mentre la PFN si attesta a -€36.7mn.
+30% QoQ), con un margine del 10.2%, in rialzo rispetto all'8.3% del 2Q24 e al 9.2% del 1Q25. L'utile netto è salito a €2 milioni, in forte aumento sia rispetto agli €0.8 milioni del primo trimestre, che al 2Q24 (+158% YoY).
Shareholder Data
3M Average Volume (th):
8.18
un'offerta ampia e diversificata; ii) un modello di business integrato che consente un efficace controllo dei costi, a sostegno della redditività; iii) una solida struttura finanziaria, con un leverage in progressivo miglioramento che offre margine per
No. of Ord shares (mn): 14
Total no. of shares (mn): 14
Mkt Cap Ord (Eu mn): 44
eventuali opportunità di crescita per linee esterne. A seguito dell'aggiornamento delle stime, la nostra valutazione DCF porta il target price a €4.95 (da €4.80). Ai prezzi attuali, il titolo offre un potenziale upside di circa il 60%.
Total Mkt Cap (Eu mn): 44
Mkt Float - Ord (Eu mn): 16
|
EBITDA Adj (Eu mn) |
14 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
||
|
Main Shareholder: |
Net Profit Adj (Eu mn) |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
|
Finanziaria Valentini S.p.A 58.6% |
EPS New Adj (Eu) |
0.205 |
0.296 |
0.323 |
0.375 |
0.429 |
|
|
Balance Sheet Data |
EPS Old Adj (Eu) |
0.200 |
0.285 |
0.296 |
0.345 |
0.398 |
|
|
DPS (Eu) |
0.141 |
0.150 |
0.163 |
0.181 |
0.207 |
||
|
Book Value (Eu mn): |
83 |
EV/EBITDA Adj |
5.1 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
|
BVPS (Eu): |
5.82 |
EV/EBIT Adj |
15.4 |
10.3 |
8.8 |
8.2 |
7.4 |
|
P/BV: |
0.5 |
P/E Adj |
15.0 |
10.3 |
9.5 |
8.2 |
7.1 |
|
Net Financial Position (Eu mn): |
-30 |
Div. Yield |
4.6% |
4.9% |
5.3% |
5.9% |
6.8% |
|
Enterprise Value (Eu mn): |
73 |
Net Debt/EBITDA Adj |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
Mkt Float (in %): 36.1%
Key Figures & Ratios 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E 2027E
Sales (Eu mn) 162 169 177 181 185
The reproduction of the information, recommendations and research produced by Intermonte SIM contained herein, and any of its parts, is strictly prohibited. None of the contents of this document may be shared with third parties without Company authorization. Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
Intermonte SIM S.p.A. Milan 20122 (Italy) - Galleria de Cristoforis, 7/8 - phone: +39-02-77115.1 - fax: +39-02-77115.300
New York (US) - Plural Securities - 950 Third Avenue, suite 1702, zip 10022, New York - USA - Phone 1 212 388-5600 https://www.intermonte.it
|
NEODECORTECH - Key Figures |
||||||
|
Profit & Loss (Eu mn) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Sales |
196 |
162 |
169 |
177 |
181 |
185 |
|
EBITDA |
16 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
EBIT |
6 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
|
Financial Income (charges) |
3 |
-2 |
-2 |
-3 |
-2 |
-1 |
|
Associates & Others |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Pre-tax Profit |
9 |
3 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
|
Taxes |
-1 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
-2 |
-2 |
|
Tax rate |
-8.7% |
9.2% |
-23.2% |
-23.5% |
-23.5% |
-23.5% |
|
Minorities & Discontinued Operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net Profit |
8 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
EBITDA Adj |
16 |
14 |
17 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
|
EBIT Adj |
6 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
|
Net Profit Adj |
8 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
Per Share Data (Eu) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Average |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
|
Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Year End |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
|
EPS f.d |
0.609 |
0.205 |
0.296 |
0.323 |
0.375 |
0.429 |
|
EPS Adj f.d |
0.609 |
0.205 |
0.296 |
0.323 |
0.375 |
0.429 |
|
BVPS f.d |
5.435 |
5.448 |
5.678 |
5.819 |
5.993 |
6.191 |
|
Dividend per Share ORD |
0.139 |
0.141 |
0.150 |
0.163 |
0.181 |
0.207 |
|
Dividend per Share SAV |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Dividend Payout Ratio (%) |
23.4% |
70.2% |
52.5% |
52.5% |
50.0% |
50.0% |
|
Cash Flow (Eu mn) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Gross Cash Flow |
19 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
|
Change in NWC |
-9 |
2 |
-10 |
1 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
Capital Expenditure |
-9 |
-6 |
-10 |
-9 |
-8 |
-8 |
|
Other Cash Items |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Free Cash Flow (FCF) |
1 |
8 |
-8 |
6 |
6 |
7 |
|
Acquisitions, Divestments & Other Items |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Dividends |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
|
Equity Financing/Buy-back |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Change in Net Financial Position |
-1 |
5 |
-7 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
|
Balance Sheet (Eu mn) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Total Fixed Assets |
81 |
78 |
79 |
78 |
76 |
75 |
|
Net Working Capital |
34 |
25 |
46 |
43 |
44 |
45 |
|
Long term Liabilities |
-8 |
-7 |
-7 |
-7 |
-7 |
-8 |
|
Net Capital Employed |
108 |
103 |
114 |
112 |
111 |
110 |
|
Net Cash (Debt) |
-31 |
-26 |
-33 |
-30 |
-26 |
-22 |
|
Group Equity |
77 |
77 |
81 |
83 |
85 |
88 |
|
Minorities |
0 |
0 |
-0 |
-0 |
-0 |
-0 |
|
Net Equity |
77 |
77 |
81 |
83 |
85 |
88 |
|
Enterprise Value (Eu mn) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Average Mkt Cap |
51 |
45 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
44 |
|
Adjustments (Associate & Minorities) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net Cash (Debt) |
-31 |
-26 |
-33 |
-30 |
-26 |
-22 |
|
Enterprise Value |
82 |
71 |
77 |
73 |
70 |
66 |
|
Ratios (%) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
EBITDA Adj Margin |
8.1% |
8.6% |
9.9% |
10.2% |
10.3% |
10.4% |
|
EBIT Adj Margin |
3.1% |
2.9% |
4.4% |
4.7% |
4.7% |
4.9% |
|
Gearing - Debt/Equity |
39.8% |
33.4% |
41.0% |
36.0% |
30.9% |
25.5% |
|
Interest Cover on EBIT |
nm |
2.3 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
4.3 |
6.2 |
|
Net Debt/EBITDA Adj |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.6 |
1.4 |
1.2 |
|
ROACE* |
5.9% |
4.4% |
6.9% |
7.3% |
7.6% |
8.1% |
|
ROE* |
11.4% |
3.7% |
5.0% |
5.3% |
6.0% |
6.6% |
|
EV/CE |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
|
EV/Sales |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|
EV/EBITDA Adj |
5.1 |
5.1 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
|
EV/EBIT Adj |
13.4 |
15.4 |
10.3 |
8.8 |
8.2 |
7.4 |
|
Free Cash Flow Yield |
1.5% |
17.8% |
-18.6% |
12.9% |
13.9% |
15.5% |
|
Growth Rates (%) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Sales |
11.4% |
-17.7% |
4.3% |
5.1% |
2.2% |
2.1% |
|
EBITDA Adj |
-11.9% |
-13.1% |
19.7% |
8.8% |
2.6% |
3.5% |
|
EBIT Adj |
-33.8% |
-24.0% |
61.2% |
10.9% |
3.0% |
5.0% |
|
Net Profit Adj |
26.1% |
-66.2% |
39.6% |
9.0% |
16.1% |
14.5% |
|
EPS Adj |
23.2% |
-66.4% |
44.8% |
9.0% |
16.1% |
14.5% |
|
DPS |
56.9% |
1.4% |
6.2% |
9.0% |
10.6% |
14.5% |
|
*Excluding extraordinary items Source: Websim Corporate SIM estimates |
||||||
Risultati 1H25
Il set di risultati del 1H25 evidenzia un miglioramento sia su base annua sia trimestrale, superando le nostre attese, nonostante una domanda nel settore dell'arredo rimasta pressoché stabile rispetto allo stesso periodo dell'anno precedente. Nel dettaglio:
Neodecortech: 2Q25 & 1H25 Consolidated Results
|
1Q24 |
2Q24A |
1H24A |
1Q25A |
2Q25A |
QoQ |
YoY |
1H25A |
YoY |
1H25E |
A vs E |
||
|
Printed paper - NDT |
16.4 |
19.0 |
35.4 |
14.7 |
20.2 |
37% |
6% |
34.9 |
-1% |
34.5 |
1% |
|
|
Decorative Paper - CDG |
17.5 |
14.0 |
31.5 |
16.6 |
11.9 |
-28% |
-15% |
28.5 |
-10% |
29.3 |
-3% |
|
|
Printed Paper - China |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
n.m. |
n.m. |
0.1 |
n.m. |
0.1 |
n.m. |
|
|
Energy - BEG |
9.2 |
9.2 |
18.4 |
12.3 |
14.6 |
19% |
59% |
26.9 |
46% |
24.2 |
11% |
|
|
Net Sales |
43.1 |
42.2 |
85.3 |
43.6 |
46.8 |
7.3% |
10.9% |
90.4 |
6.0% |
88.0 |
2.8% |
|
|
Value of the production |
43.5 |
43.6 |
87.0 |
50.3 |
44.2 |
-12.2% |
1.4% |
94.5 |
92.0 |
|||
|
Raw materials costs |
(27.9) |
(27.8) |
(55.6) |
(33.8) |
(26.7) |
(60.5) |
(58.8) |
|||||
|
Other operating costs |
(6.8) |
(6.6) |
(13.4) |
(6.7) |
(6.4) |
(13.2) |
(13.5) |
|||||
|
Personnel costs |
(5.4) |
(5.8) |
(11.1) |
(5.8) |
(5.9) |
(11.6) |
(11.6) |
|||||
|
EBITDA |
3.4 |
3.5 |
6.9 |
4.0 |
5.2 |
30.0% |
48.3% |
9.2 |
34.3% |
8.2 |
13.0% |
|
|
% margin on net sales |
7.8% |
8.3% |
8.1% |
9.2% |
11.2% |
10.2% |
9.3% |
|||||
|
Non recurring items |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||
|
Adj. EBITDA |
3.4 |
3.5 |
6.9 |
4.0 |
5.2 |
30.0% |
48.3% |
9.2 |
34.3% |
8.2 |
13.0% |
|
|
% margin on net sales |
7.8% |
8.3% |
8.1% |
9.2% |
11.2% |
10.2% |
9.3% |
|||||
|
D&A and Provisions |
(2.2) |
(2.2) |
(4.4) |
(2.5) |
(2.4) |
(4.9) |
(5.0) |
|||||
|
EBIT |
1.2 |
1.3 |
2.4 |
1.5 |
2.8 |
85.0% |
121.6% |
4.3 |
77.8% |
3.1 |
38.3% |
|
|
% margin on net sales |
2.7% |
3.0% |
2.9% |
3.5% |
6.0% |
4.8% |
3.6% |
|||||
|
Net Financial Charges |
(0.6) |
(0.5) |
(1.1) |
(0.6) |
(0.6) |
(1.2) |
(1.2) |
|||||
|
Associates |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|||||
|
Pretax Profit |
0.6 |
0.8 |
1.4 |
0.9 |
2.2 |
135.0% |
196.7% |
3.2 |
131.5% |
1.9 |
65.8% |
|
|
Taxes |
0.0 |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.4) |
(0.4) |
|||||
|
% tax load ratio |
-2% |
24% |
12% |
19% |
10% |
13% |
19% |
|||||
|
Consolidated Net Profit |
0.6 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
161.7% |
250.0% |
2.8 |
129.6% |
1.6 |
78.5% |
|
|
% margin on net sales |
1.5% |
1.4% |
1.4% |
1.8% |
4.3% |
3.1% |
1.8% |
|||||
|
Minorities |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.0) |
|||||
|
Net Profit |
0.7 |
0.6 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
2.0 |
158.1% |
256.5% |
2.8 |
130.3% |
1.5 |
84.7% |
|
|
% margin on net sales |
1.5% |
1.3% |
1.4% |
1.8% |
4.3% |
3.1% |
1.7% |
|||||
|
Net Financial Position |
(37.5) |
(38.5) |
(33.4) |
(36.7) |
(31.9) |
|||||||
|
Operating Working Capital |
32.9 |
35.1 |
38.5 |
40.0 |
35.2 |
|||||||
|
Capex |
1.8 |
1.3 |
3.1 |
1.3 |
2.7 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
Source: Company Data
Revisione delle stime FY25-27
Pur mantenendo un approccio cauto, alla luce di un contesto di mercato ancora complesso nel settore dell'arredo, rivediamo al rialzo le nostre stime di ricavi per il periodo FY25-27, con incrementi rispettivi del 2.7%, 2.6% e 2.4%.
A livello di redditività, stimiamo un miglioramento dell'EBITDA pari a +6.1% nel 2025, +5.8% nel 2026 e
+5.3% nel 2027, con una marginalità in progressivo aumento e stabilmente al di sopra del 10%. L'adeguamento si riflette anche sull'utile netto, rivisto in crescita del 9.1%, 8.8% e 7.9% nei rispettivi esercizi.
Neodecortech: 2025-27 Change in estimates
|
(Eu mn) |
2025E Old |
2025E New |
% chg |
2026E Old |
2026E New |
% chg |
2027E Old |
2027E New |
% chg |
|
Net revenues |
172.5 |
177.1 |
2.7% |
176.5 |
181.0 |
2.6% |
180.5 |
184.8 |
2.4% |
|
Value of production |
174.8 |
179.5 |
2.7% |
178.8 |
183.4 |
2.6% |
183.0 |
187.3 |
2.4% |
|
Reported EBITDA |
17.1 |
18.1 |
6.1% |
17.5 |
18.6 |
5.8% |
18.2 |
19.2 |
5.3% |
|
% margin on net sales |
9.9% |
10.2% |
9.9% |
10.3% |
10.1% |
10.4% |
|||
|
D&A |
(9.4) |
(9.7) |
(9.6) |
(10.0) |
(9.9) |
(10.2) |
|||
|
% on net sales |
5.5% |
5.5% |
5.5% |
5.5% |
5.5% |
5.5% |
|||
|
Writedowns/Provision |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
|||
|
% on net sales |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|||
|
Reported EBIT |
7.6 |
8.3 |
9.3% |
7.8 |
8.5 |
8.9% |
8.3 |
9.0 |
7.9% |
|
% margin on net sales |
4.4% |
4.7% |
4.4% |
4.7% |
4.6% |
4.9% |
|||
|
Pretax |
5.4 |
5.7 |
5.0% |
6.3 |
6.6 |
4.8% |
7.3 |
7.5 |
3.9% |
|
Taxes |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
(1.7) |
(1.8) |
|||
|
% tax load ratio |
23.5% |
23.5% |
23.5% |
23.5% |
23.5% |
23.5% |
|||
|
Minorities |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
|||
|
Net income |
4.0 |
4.3 |
9.1% |
4.6 |
5.0 |
8.8% |
5.3 |
5.8 |
7.9% |
|
% margin on net sales |
2.3% |
2.4% |
2.6% |
2.8% |
3.0% |
3.1% |
|||
|
Net Financial Position |
(21.2) |
(29.8) |
40.6% |
(17.8) |
(26.3) |
47.9% |
(14.1) |
(22.5) |
59.7% |
|
Operating Working Capital |
34.4 |
42.7 |
24.1% |
35.1 |
43.6 |
24.0% |
36.0 |
44.5 |
23.8% |
|
Capex |
8.6 |
9.4 |
8.8% |
7.9 |
8.1 |
2.6% |
8.1 |
8.3 |
2.4% |
Source: Websim Corporate estimates
|
DETAILS ON STOCKS RECOMMENDATION |
|||
|
Stock NAME |
NEODECORTECH |
||
|
Current Recomm: |
BUY |
Previous Recomm: |
BUY |
|
Current Target (Eu): |
4.95 |
Previous Target (Eu): |
4.80 |
|
Current Price (Eu): |
3.06 |
Previous Price (Eu): |
3.00 |
|
Date of report: |
07/08/2025 |
Date of last report: |
19/05/2025 |
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
For each company mentioned in this report the respective research analyst hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any or all of the subject issuer (s) or securities. The analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or view in this report.
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GUIDE TO FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH
The main methods used to evaluate financial instruments and set a target price for 12 months after the investment recommendation are as follows:
-
Discounted cash flow (DCF) model or similar methods such as a dividend discount model (DDM)
-
Comparison with market peers, using the most appropriate methods for the individual company analysed: among the main ratios used for industrial sectors are price/ earnings (P/E), EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, price /sales
-
Return on capital and multiples of adjusted net book value are the main methods used for banking sector stocks, while for insurance sector stocks return on allocated capital and multiples on net book value and embedded portfolio value are used
-
For the utilities sector comparisons are made between expected returns and the return on the regulatory asset base (RAB)
Some of the parameters used in evaluations, such as the risk-free rate and risk premium, are the same for all companies covered, and are updated to reflect market conditions. Currently a risk-free rate of 4.0% and a risk premium between 5.5% - 6.0% are being used.
Frequency of research: quarterly.
Reports on all companies listed on the FTSEMIB40 Index, most of those on the MIDEX Index and the main small caps (regular coverage) are published at least once per quarter to comment on results and important newsflow.
A draft copy of each report may be sent to the subject company for its information (without target price and/or recommendations), but unless expressly stated in the text of the report, no changes are made before it is published. Explanation of our ratings system:
BUY: stock expected to outperform the market by over 25% over a 12 month period;
OUTPERFORM: stock expected to outperform the market by between 10% and 25% over a 12 month period; NEUTRAL: stock performance expected at between +10% and - 10% compared to the market over a 12 month period; UNDERPERFORM: stock expected to underperform the market by between -10% and -25% over a 12 month period; SELL: stock expected to underperform the market by over 25% over a 12 month period.
Prices: The prices reported in the research refer to the price at the close of the previous day of trading
CURRENT INVESTMENT RESEARCH RATING DISTRIBUTIONS
Intermonte SIM is authorised by CONSOB to provide investment services and is listed at n° 246 in the register of brokerage firms.
As at 7 August 2025 Intermonte's Research Department covered 134 companies. Intermonte's distribution of stock ratings is as follows:
|
BUY: |
31.34% |
|
OUTPERFORM: |
37.31% |
|
NEUTRAL: |
31.35% |
|
UNDERPERFORM: |
00.00% |
|
SELL: |
00.00% |
The distribution of stock ratings for companies which have received corporate finance services from Intermonte in the last 12 months (79 in total) is as follows:
|
BUY: |
51.90% |
|
OUTPERFORM: |
29.11% |
|
NEUTRAL: |
18.99% |
|
UNDERPERFORM: |
00.00% |
|
SELL: |
00.00% |
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
In order to disclose its possible conflicts of interest Intermonte SIM states that:
Intermonte SIM S.p.A. operates or has operated in the last 12 months as the person in charge of carrying out the share buyback plan approved by the shareholders' meeting of ABITARE IN, ANIMA HOLDING, AZIMUT, CIVITANAVI SYSTEMS, EL.EN., ELICA, INTRED, PHARMANUTRA, SERVIZI ITALIA, SESA, STAR7, TMP GROUP, UNIDATA, VALSOIA, WEBUILD
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SpA
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