Milan, 19 May 2025
Italian Equity Research - 1Q25 Results
NEODECORTECH BUY
Sector: Industrials Price: Eu3.00 - Target: Eu4.80
1Q25: set di risultati solido e in linea con le attese
Chiara Tavazzi +39-02-77115.451
Stock Rating
Rating: Unchanged
Target Price (Eu): Unchanged
2025E 2026E 2027E Chg in Adj EPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Next Event: 1H25 Results
Results Out August 4th, 2025
NEODECORTECH - 12M Performance
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
m-24 l-24 s-24 n-24 g-25 m-25 m-25
NEODECORTECH
NEODECORTECH Rel. to FTSE All Shares (Reb.)
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Stock Data |
|||
|
Reuters code: Bloomberg code: |
NDT.MI NDT IM |
||
|
Performance |
1M |
3M |
12M |
|
Absolute |
10.9% |
7.0% |
3.4% |
|
Relative |
-6.7% |
1.3% |
-11.4% |
|
12M (H/L) |
3.33/2.52 |
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i risultati 1Q25, che evidenziano un miglioramento rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2024, pur segnando un leggero calo rispetto al quarto trimestre dell'anno scorso. I ricavi consolidati si attestano a €43.6mn, in crescita del +1.3% su base annua, sostenuti principalmente dall'ottima performance della controllata Bioenergia Guarcino. Sul fronte della redditività, l'EBITDA si è attestato a €4mn, in aumento del
+19% YoY, con una marginalità del 9.1% (vs 7.8% nel 1Q24). L'utile netto si è attestato a €0.7mn, in crescita del +13.6% rispetto allo stesso periodo dell'anno precedente. La Posizione Finanziaria Netta è risultata negativa per €33.4mn, sostanzialmente stabile rispetto al 31 dicembre 2024 (€33.1mn), e in miglioramento rispetto ai €37.4mn del primo trimestre 2024. Nel corso del trimestre sono stati sostenuti investimenti per €1.3mn, destinati all'acquisto di nuovi macchinari per la Capogruppo e all'efficientamento degli impianti nelle due divisioni core.
|
Key Figures & Ratios |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Sales (Eu mn) |
162 |
169 |
173 |
176 |
181 |
|
EBITDA Adj (Eu mn) |
14 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
|
Net Profit Adj (Eu mn) |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
EPS New Adj (Eu) |
0.200 |
0.285 |
0.296 |
0.345 |
0.398 |
|
EPS Old Adj (Eu) |
0.200 |
0.285 |
0.296 |
0.345 |
0.398 |
|
DPS (Eu) |
0.141 |
0.150 |
0.155 |
0.172 |
0.199 |
|
EV/EBITDA Adj |
5.1 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
|
EV/EBIT Adj |
15.4 |
10.3 |
8.5 |
7.8 |
6.9 |
|
P/E Adj |
15.2 |
10.7 |
10.3 |
8.8 |
7.6 |
|
Div. Yield |
4.6% |
4.9% |
5.1% |
5.7% |
6.5% |
|
Net Debt/EBITDA Adj |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
|
3M Average Volume (th): |
6.31 |
|
Shareholder Data |
|
|
No. of Ord shares (mn): |
14 |
|
Total no. of shares (mn): |
14 |
|
Mkt Cap Ord (Eu mn): |
43 |
|
Total Mkt Cap (Eu mn): |
43 |
|
Mkt Float - Ord (Eu mn): |
16 |
|
Mkt Float (in %): |
36.1% |
|
Main Shareholder: |
|
|
Finanziaria Valentini S.p.A |
58.6% |
|
Balance Sheet Data |
|
|
Book Value (Eu mn): |
83 |
|
BVPS (Eu): |
5.81 |
|
P/BV: |
0.5 |
|
Net Financial Position (Eu mn): |
-21 |
|
Enterprise Value (Eu mn): |
64 |
The reproduction of the information, recommendations and research produced by Intermonte SIM contained herein, and any of its parts, is strictly prohibited. None of the contents of this document may be shared with third parties without Company authorization. Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
Intermonte SIM S.p.A. Milan 20122 (Italy) - Galleria de Cristoforis, 7/8 - phone: +39-02-77115.1 - fax: +39-02-77115.300
New York (US) - Plural Securities - 950 Third Avenue, suite 1702, zip 10022, New York - USA - Phone 1 212 388-5600 https://www.intermonte.it
|
NEODECORTECH - Key Figures |
||||||
|
Profit & Loss (Eu mn) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Sales |
196 |
162 |
169 |
173 |
176 |
181 |
|
EBITDA |
16 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
|
EBIT |
6 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
|
Financial Income (charges) |
3 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-1 |
|
Associates & Others |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Pre-tax Profit |
9 |
3 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
7 |
|
Taxes |
-1 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-2 |
|
Tax rate |
-8.7% |
9.2% |
-23.2% |
-23.5% |
-23.5% |
-23.5% |
|
Minorities & Discontinued Operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net Profit |
8 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
EBITDA Adj |
16 |
14 |
17 |
17 |
18 |
18 |
|
EBIT Adj |
6 |
5 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
8 |
|
Net Profit Adj |
8 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
|
Per Share Data (Eu) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Average |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
|
Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Year End |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
|
EPS f.d |
0.607 |
0.200 |
0.285 |
0.296 |
0.345 |
0.398 |
|
EPS Adj f.d |
0.607 |
0.200 |
0.285 |
0.296 |
0.345 |
0.398 |
|
BVPS f.d |
5.435 |
5.448 |
5.678 |
5.812 |
5.978 |
6.169 |
|
Dividend per Share ORD |
0.139 |
0.141 |
0.150 |
0.155 |
0.172 |
0.199 |
|
Dividend per Share SAV |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
|
Dividend Payout Ratio (%) |
23.4% |
70.2% |
52.5% |
52.5% |
50.0% |
50.0% |
|
Cash Flow (Eu mn) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Gross Cash Flow |
19 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
|
Change in NWC |
-9 |
2 |
-10 |
9 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
Capital Expenditure |
-9 |
-6 |
-10 |
-9 |
-8 |
-8 |
|
Other Cash Items |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Free Cash Flow (FCF) |
1 |
8 |
-8 |
14 |
6 |
7 |
|
Acquisitions, Divestments & Other Items |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Dividends |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
|
Equity Financing/Buy-back |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Change in Net Financial Position |
-1 |
5 |
-7 |
12 |
3 |
4 |
|
Balance Sheet (Eu mn) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Total Fixed Assets |
81 |
78 |
79 |
78 |
76 |
74 |
|
Net Working Capital |
34 |
25 |
46 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
|
Long term Liabilities |
-8 |
-7 |
-7 |
-7 |
-7 |
-8 |
|
Net Capital Employed |
108 |
103 |
114 |
104 |
103 |
102 |
|
Net Cash (Debt) |
-31 |
-26 |
-33 |
-21 |
-18 |
-14 |
|
Group Equity |
77 |
77 |
81 |
83 |
85 |
88 |
|
Minorities |
0 |
0 |
-0 |
-0 |
-0 |
-0 |
|
Net Equity |
77 |
77 |
81 |
83 |
85 |
88 |
|
Enterprise Value (Eu mn) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Average Mkt Cap |
51 |
45 |
44 |
43 |
43 |
43 |
|
Adjustments (Associate & Minorities) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Net Cash (Debt) |
-31 |
-26 |
-33 |
-21 |
-18 |
-14 |
|
Enterprise Value |
82 |
71 |
77 |
64 |
61 |
57 |
|
Ratios (%) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
EBITDA Adj Margin |
8.1% |
8.6% |
9.9% |
9.9% |
9.9% |
10.1% |
|
EBIT Adj Margin |
3.1% |
2.9% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
4.4% |
4.6% |
|
Gearing - Debt/Equity |
39.8% |
33.4% |
41.0% |
25.6% |
20.9% |
16.1% |
|
Interest Cover on EBIT |
nm |
2.3 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
5.0 |
7.8 |
|
Net Debt/EBITDA Adj |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
1.2 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
|
ROACE* |
5.9% |
4.4% |
6.9% |
7.0% |
7.6% |
8.1% |
|
ROE* |
11.4% |
3.7% |
5.0% |
5.0% |
5.7% |
6.4% |
|
EV/CE |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
|
EV/Sales |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
EV/EBITDA Adj |
5.1 |
5.1 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
|
EV/EBIT Adj |
13.4 |
15.4 |
10.3 |
8.5 |
7.8 |
6.9 |
|
Free Cash Flow Yield |
1.5% |
17.9% |
-18.8% |
32.7% |
13.5% |
15.1% |
|
Growth Rates (%) |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
|
Sales |
11.4% |
-17.7% |
4.3% |
2.3% |
2.3% |
2.3% |
|
EBITDA Adj |
-11.9% |
-13.1% |
19.7% |
2.6% |
2.9% |
4.0% |
|
EBIT Adj |
-33.8% |
-24.0% |
61.2% |
1.4% |
3.3% |
6.0% |
|
Net Profit Adj |
26.1% |
-66.2% |
39.6% |
3.8% |
16.4% |
15.5% |
|
EPS Adj |
22.9% |
-67.0% |
42.5% |
3.8% |
16.4% |
15.5% |
|
DPS |
56.9% |
1.4% |
6.2% |
3.8% |
10.8% |
15.5% |
|
*Excluding extraordinary items Source: Intermonte SIM estimates |
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DETAILS ON STOCKS RECOMMENDATION |
|||
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Stock NAME |
NEODECORTECH |
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|
Current Recomm: |
BUY |
Previous Recomm: |
BUY |
|
Current Target (Eu): |
4.80 |
Previous Target (Eu): |
4.80 |
|
Current Price (Eu): |
3.00 |
Previous Price (Eu): |
3.00 |
|
Date of report: |
19/05/2025 |
Date of last report: |
25/03/2025 |
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
The reproduction of the information, recommendations and research produced by Intermonte SIM contained herein and of any its parts is strictly prohibited. None of the contents of this document may be shared with third parties without authorisation from Intermonte.
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
For each company mentioned in this report the respective research analyst hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any or all of the subject issuer (s) or securities. The analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or view in this report.
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The analyst responsible for the report is not a) a resident of US; b) an associated person of a U.S. broker-dealer; c) supervised by a supervisory principal of a U.S. broker-dealer. This Research Report is distributed in the U.S. through Plural Securities LLC, 950 3rd Ave, Suite 1702, NY 10022, USA.
GUIDE TO FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH
The main methods used to evaluate financial instruments and set a target price for 12 months after the investment recommendation are as follows:
-
Discounted cash flow (DCF) model or similar methods such as a dividend discount model (DDM)
-
Comparison with market peers, using the most appropriate methods for the individual company analysed: among the main ratios used for industrial sectors are price/ earnings (P/E), EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, price /sales.
-
Return on capital and multiples of adjusted net book value are the main methods used for banking sector stocks, while for insurance sector stocks return on allocated capital and multiples on net book value and embedded portfolio value are used
-
For the utilities sector comparisons are made between expected returns and the return on the regulatory asset base (RAB)
Some of the parameters used in evaluations, such as the risk-free rate and risk premium, are the same for all companies covered, and are updated to reflect market conditions. Currently a risk-free rate of 4.0% and a risk premium between 5.5%-6.0% are being used.
Frequency of research: quarterly.
Reports on all companies listed on the S&PMIB40 Index, most of those on the MIDEX Index and the main small caps (regular coverage) are published at least once per quarter to comment on results and important newsflow.
A draft copy of each report may be sent to the subject company for its information (without target price and/or recommendations), but unless expressly stated in the text of the report, no changes are made before it is published. Explanation of our ratings system:
BUY: stock expected to outperform the market by over 25% over a 12 month period;
OUTPERFORM: stock expected to outperform the market by between 10% and 25% over a 12 month period; NEUTRAL: stock performance expected at between +10% and - 10% compared to the market over a 12 month period; UNDERPERFORM: stock expected to underperform the market by between -10% and -25% over a 12 month period; SELL: stock expected to underperform the market by over 25% over a 12 month period.
Prices: The prices reported in the research refer to the price at the close of the previous day of trading
CURRENT INVESTMENT RESEARCH RATING DISTRIBUTIONS
Intermonte SIM is authorised by CONSOB to provide investment services and is listed at n° 246 in the register of brokerage firms. As at 31 March 2025 Intermonte's Research Department covered 131 companies.
As of today Intermonte's distribution of stock ratings is as follows:
|
BUY: |
32.59 % |
|
OUTPERFORM: |
37.78 % |
|
NEUTRAL: |
29.63 % |
|
UNDERPERFORM |
00.00 % |
|
SELL: |
00.00 % |
As at 31 March 2025 the distribution of stock ratings for companies which have received corporate finance services from Intermonte in the last 12 months (74 in total) is as follows:
|
BUY: |
52.70 % |
|
OUTPERFORM: |
29.73 % |
|
NEUTRAL: |
17.57 % |
|
UNDERPERFORM |
00.00 % |
|
SELL: |
00.00 % |
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
In order to disclose its possible conflicts of interest Intermonte SIM states that:
Intermonte SIM S.p.A. operates or has operated in the last 12 months as the person in charge of carrying out the share buyback plan approved by the shareholders' meeting of ABITARE IN, ANIMA HOLDING, AZIMUT, CIVITANAVI SYSTEMS, EL.EN., ELICA, INTRED, PHARMANUTRA, SERVIZI ITALIA, SESA, TMP GROUP, UNIDATA, WEBUILD
Intermonte SIM S.p.A. provides or has provided corporate brokerage services to ALLCORE, ALMAWAVE, ANTARES VISION, AQUAFIL, AVIO, CASTA DIVA GROUP, CUBE LABS, CY4GATE, CYBEROO, DIGITOUCH, DOMINION HOSTING HOLDING, ELICA, ENERGY, ESPRINET, EVISO, FINE FOODS & PHARMACEUTICALS NTM, FNM, FRANCHI UMBERTO MARMI, G.M. LEATHER, GPI, GREEN OLEO, GREENTHESIS, HIGH QUALITY FOOD, IGD, IKONISYS SA, INTRED, ISCC FINTECH, ITALIAN EXHIBITION GROUP, LEMON SISTEMI, LUVE, MAPS, MARE ENGINEERING GROUP, NEODECORTECH, NOTORIOUS PICTURES, REDFISH LONGTERM CAPITAL, REVO INSURANCE, REWAY GROUP, SERI INDUSTRIAL, SG COMPANY, SPINDOX, STAR7, TALEA GROUP, ULISSE BIOMED, XENIA HOTELLERIE
SOLUTION, Zest Group SpA in the last 12 months
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Intermonte SIM SpA holds net long or short positions in excess of 0.5% of the overall share capital in the following issuers:
|
Emittente |
% |
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