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Milan, 15 November 2024 |
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Italian Equity Research - 3Q24 Results |
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NEODECORTECH |
BUY |
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Sector: Industrials |
Price: Eu2.90 - Target: Eu4.30 |
9M24: ricavi in calo, marginalità confermata al 9%
Chiara Tavazzi +39-02-77115.451
chiara.tavazzi@intermonte.it
Stock Rating
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Rating: |
Unchanged |
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Target Price (Eu): |
from 4.50 to 4.30 |
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2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
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Chg in Adj EPS |
-30.4% |
-31.4% |
-38.0% |
NEODECORTECH - 12M Performance
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3.4 |
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3.2 |
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3.0 |
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2.8 |
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2.6 |
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2.4 |
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2.2 |
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n-23 |
g-24 |
m-24 |
m-24 |
l-24 |
s-24 |
n-24 |
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NEODECORTECH |
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NEODECORTECH Rel. to FTSE All Shares (Reb.) |
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Stock Data |
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Reuters code: |
NDT.MI |
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Bloomberg code: |
NDT IM |
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Performance |
1M |
3M |
12M |
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Absolute |
-6.5% |
-7.6% |
3.6% |
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Relative |
-4.8% |
-12.7% |
-12.6% |
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12M (H/L) |
3.34/2.70 |
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3M Average Volume (th): |
1.87 |
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Shareholder Data |
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No. of Ord shares (mn): |
14 |
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Total no. of shares (mn): |
14 |
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Mkt Cap Ord (Eu mn): |
41 |
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Total Mkt Cap (Eu mn): |
41 |
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Mkt Float - Ord (Eu mn): |
17 |
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Mkt Float (in %): |
41.4% |
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Main Shareholder: |
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Finanziaria Valentini S.p.A |
58.6% |
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Balance Sheet Data |
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Book Value (Eu mn): |
78 |
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BVPS (Eu): |
5.47 |
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P/BV: |
0.5 |
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Net Financial Position (Eu mn): |
-26 |
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Enterprise Value (Eu mn): |
67 |
I risultati pubblicati evidenziano un rallentamento nel 3Q24. I risultati 9M24 comunicati hanno risentito del rallentamento della domanda che sta caratterizzando la filiera delle superfici decorative legate al mercato del mobile e dell'arredo e di una riduzione dei prezzi unitari. La società ha registrato ricavi per €121,5 milioni (-2,3%YoY), dato dal quale si evince un significativo calo del fatturato nel terzo trimestre dell'anno, nel quale i ricavi si attestano a €36 milioni (-6,1%YoY, -14,1%QoQ). Riteniamo apprezzabile il diligente controllo dei costi attuato, che ha permesso di salvaguardare la marginalità del gruppo. Il margine EBITDA ha incidenza sul fatturato pari a 9,1%, dato che risulta sostanzialmente in linea con l'esercizio precedente, il quale però comprendeva tra gli altri ricavi €2,6 milioni di ricavi per massimizzazione, al netto dei quali la marginalità passerebbe dal 9,1% al 7%. L'Indebitamento Finanziario Netto risulta pari a €39,1mn, su tale cifra incidono crediti governativi non ancora incassati per €18,2mn.
Dettaglio dei ricavi per area. Nei primi 9M dell'esercizio le vendite della divisione carta decorativa stampata e carta decorativa sono diminuite rispettivamente del - 8,3% e -10,4% su base annua, mentre quelle della divisione energia sono cresciute del +22,3% su basse annua, grazie al maggior numero di ore in cui l'impianto ha operato. Ricordiamo infatti che il 2023 aveva risentito del fermo dell'impianto dal 1° aprile al 15 maggio. A livello geografico Italia ed Europa sono le aree in cui si è registrata una contrazione più accentuata dei ricavi, pari al -11,6% (escludendo l'effetto positivo della divisione energetica) per l'Italia e al -8,9% per l'Europa. Per quanto concerne le altre aree di riferimento si registra in calo Asia/Middle East, stabile l'America e in crescita l'Africa.
Indicazioni del management. La società si attende che il rallentamento generale della domanda persista in misura omogenea nelle aree di vendita in cui le società core operano sino alla fine dell'anno in corso e per i primi mesi del 2025. Mentre è prevista stabilità per i vettori energetici. Per quanto concerne l'andamento delle materie prime strategiche è attesa una certa stabilità per resine, plastiche e biossido di titanio, possibili ulteriori rialzi per la carta ed è atteso un ulteriore ritracciamento dei prezzi della cellulosa, fino ad un riallineamento con le quotazioni sul mercato cinese. Come di consueto non è stata fornita una guidance quantitativa.
Aggiornamento nelle stime FY24-26 e valutazione. In seguito ai risultati pubblicati stiamo aggiornando al ribasso le nostre stime: abbiamo ridotto le stime dei ricavi FY24-26rispettivamente del -8%, -10%e -10%e le stime sull'EBIDA del -5%, -10%e -16%.Ci attendiamo inoltre che l'incasso dei crediti per gli incentivi governativi possa avvenire in gran parte entro la fine dell'anno, il che comporterebbe un sostanziale miglioramento della posizione finanziaria netta, stimata a €27milioni per fine 2024. Il taglio delle stime comporta una riduzione del target che passa da €4,50 a €4,30. Confermiamo il nostro giudizio positivo in attesa di un contesto di mercato più favorevole atteso per la seconda metà del 2025, che potrebbe beneficiare di eventuali ulteriori tagli dei tassi di interesse. Agli attuali prezzi di borsa il titolo presenta un potenziale upside del 50% c.a. BUY, target price €4,30.
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Key Figures & Ratios |
2022A |
2023A |
2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
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Sales (Eu mn) |
196 |
162 |
158 |
161 |
164 |
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EBITDA Adj (Eu mn) |
16 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
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Net Profit Adj (Eu mn) |
8 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
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EPS New Adj (Eu) |
0.607 |
0.200 |
0.159 |
0.216 |
0.258 |
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EPS Old Adj (Eu) |
0.607 |
0.200 |
0.229 |
0.315 |
0.416 |
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DPS (Eu) |
0.139 |
0.141 |
0.040 |
0.054 |
0.064 |
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EV/EBITDA Adj |
5.1 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
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EV/EBIT Adj |
13.4 |
15.4 |
13.0 |
11.3 |
10.0 |
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P/E Adj |
4.8 |
14.5 |
18.2 |
13.4 |
11.3 |
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Div. Yield |
4.8% |
4.9% |
1.4% |
1.9% |
2.2% |
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Net Debt/EBITDA Adj |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
The reproduction of the information, recommendations and research produced by Intermonte SIM contained herein, and any of its parts, is strictly prohibited. None of the contents of this document may be shared with third parties without Company authorization. Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
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Intermonte SIM S.p.A. Milan 20122 (Italy) - Galleria de Cristoforis, 7/8 - phone: +39-02-77115.1 - fax: +39-02-77115.300 |
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New York (US) - Plural Securities - 950 Third Avenue, suite 1702, zip 10022, New York - USA - Phone 1 212 388-5600 |
NEODECORTECH - Key Figures
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Profit & Loss (Eu mn) |
2021A |
2022A |
2023A |
2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
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Sales |
176 |
196 |
162 |
158 |
161 |
164 |
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EBITDA |
18 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
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EBIT |
9 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
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Financial Income (charges) |
-1 |
3 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-1 |
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Associates & Others |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Pre-tax Profit |
8 |
9 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
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Taxes |
-1 |
-1 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
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Tax rate |
-16.6% |
-8.7% |
9.2% |
-22.0% |
-22.0% |
-22.0% |
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Minorities & Discontinued Operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Net Profit |
7 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|
EBITDA Adj |
18 |
16 |
14 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
|
EBIT Adj |
9 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
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Net Profit Adj |
7 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
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Per Share Data (Eu) |
2021A |
2022A |
2023A |
2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
|
Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Average |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
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Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Year End |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
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EPS f.d |
0.493 |
0.607 |
0.200 |
0.159 |
0.216 |
0.258 |
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EPS Adj f.d |
0.493 |
0.607 |
0.200 |
0.159 |
0.216 |
0.258 |
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BVPS f.d |
5.181 |
5.435 |
5.448 |
5.467 |
5.542 |
5.659 |
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Dividend per Share ORD |
0.089 |
0.139 |
0.141 |
0.040 |
0.054 |
0.064 |
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Dividend per Share SAV |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
0.000 |
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Dividend Payout Ratio (%) |
18.0% |
23.4% |
70.2% |
25.0% |
25.0% |
25.0% |
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Cash Flow (Eu mn) |
2021A |
2022A |
2023A |
2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
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Gross Cash Flow |
15 |
19 |
13 |
11 |
12 |
13 |
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Change in NWC |
2 |
-9 |
2 |
-3 |
-1 |
-1 |
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Capital Expenditure |
-10 |
-9 |
-6 |
-6 |
-6 |
-6 |
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Other Cash Items |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Free Cash Flow (FCF) |
7 |
1 |
8 |
2 |
4 |
5 |
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Acquisitions, Divestments & Other Items |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Dividends |
-1 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
-2 |
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Equity Financing/Buy-back |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Change in Net Financial Position |
11 |
-1 |
5 |
0 |
2 |
3 |
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Balance Sheet (Eu mn) |
2021A |
2022A |
2023A |
2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
|
Total Fixed Assets |
82 |
81 |
78 |
75 |
73 |
70 |
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Net Working Capital |
27 |
34 |
25 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
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Long term Liabilities |
-8 |
-8 |
-7 |
-7 |
-7 |
-7 |
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Net Capital Employed |
100 |
108 |
103 |
103 |
102 |
100 |
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Net Cash (Debt) |
-29 |
-31 |
-26 |
-26 |
-23 |
-20 |
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Group Equity |
70 |
77 |
77 |
78 |
79 |
80 |
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Minorities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
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Net Equity |
70 |
77 |
77 |
78 |
79 |
80 |
|
Enterprise Value (Eu mn) |
2021A |
2022A |
2023A |
2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
|||
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Average Mkt Cap |
53 |
51 |
45 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
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Adjustments (Associate & Minorities) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|||
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Net Cash (Debt) |
-29 |
-31 |
-26 |
-26 |
-23 |
-20 |
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Enterprise Value |
83 |
82 |
71 |
67 |
65 |
61 |
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Ratios (%) |
2021A |
2022A |
2023A |
2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
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EBITDA Adj Margin |
10.3% |
8.1% |
8.6% |
8.9% |
9.1% |
9.2% |
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EBIT Adj Margin |
5.2% |
3.1% |
2.9% |
3.3% |
3.6% |
3.7% |
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Gearing - Debt/Equity |
41.6% |
39.8% |
33.4% |
33.1% |
29.5% |
24.7% |
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Interest Cover on EBIT |
7.6 |
nm |
2.3 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
4.4 |
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Net Debt/EBITDA Adj |
1.6 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
1.3 |
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ROACE* |
9.2% |
5.9% |
4.4% |
5.0% |
5.6% |
6.0% |
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ROE* |
10.1% |
11.4% |
3.7% |
2.9% |
3.9% |
4.6% |
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EV/CE |
0.8 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
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EV/Sales |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
|||
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EV/EBITDA Adj |
4.6 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
4.0 |
|||
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EV/EBIT Adj |
9.0 |
13.4 |
15.4 |
13.0 |
11.3 |
10.0 |
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Free Cash Flow Yield |
18.0% |
1.6% |
19.8% |
5.2% |
10.8% |
13.1% |
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Growth Rates (%) |
2021A |
2022A |
2023A |
2024E |
2025E |
2026E |
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Sales |
38.0% |
11.4% |
-17.7% |
-2.2% |
1.9% |
2.0% |
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EBITDA Adj |
24.1% |
-11.9% |
-13.1% |
1.1% |
4.4% |
3.0% |
|||
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EBIT Adj |
68.1% |
-33.8% |
-24.0% |
10.8% |
11.3% |
6.6% |
|||
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Net Profit Adj |
89.2% |
26.1% |
-66.2% |
-20.5% |
35.7% |
19.2% |
|||
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EPS Adj |
85.7% |
22.9% |
-67.0% |
-20.5% |
35.7% |
19.2% |
|||
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DPS |
-36.3% |
56.9% |
1.4% |
-71.8% |
35.7% |
19.2% |
|||
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*Excluding extraordinary items |
Source: Intermonte SIM estimates |
2
DETAILS ON STOCKS RECOMMENDATION
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Stock NAME |
NEODECORTECH |
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Current Recomm: |
BUY |
Previous Recomm: |
BUY |
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Current Target (Eu): |
4.30 |
Previous Target (Eu): |
4.50 |
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Current Price (Eu): |
2.90 |
Previous Price (Eu): |
3.12 |
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Date of report: |
15/11/2024 |
Date of last report: |
07/08/2024 |
3
DISCLAIMER (for more details go to DISCLAIMER)
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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The information and data in this report have been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable, although the accuracy of these cannot be guaranteed by Intermonte. In the event that there be any doubt as to their reliability, this will be clearly indicated. The main purpose of the report is to offer up-to-date and accurate information in accordance with regulations in force covering "recommendations" and is not intended nor should it be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell securities.
This disclaimer is constantly updated on Intermonte's website www.intermonte.itunder LEGAL INFORMATION. Valuations and recommendations can be found in the text of the most recent research and/or reports on the companies in question. For a list of all recommendations made by Intermonte on any financial instrument or issuer in the last twelve months consult the PERFORMANCEweb page.
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For each company mentioned in this report the respective research analyst hereby certifies that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any or all of the subject issuer (s) or securities. The analyst (s) also certify that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation or view in this report.
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Intermonte's internal procedures and codes of conduct are aimed to ensure the impartiality of its financial analysts. The exchange of information between the Corporate Finance sector and the Research Department is prohibited, as is the exchange of information between the latter and the proprietary equity desk in order to prevent conflicts of interest when recommendations are made.
The analyst responsible for the report is not a) a resident of US; b) an associated person of a U.S. broker-dealer; c) supervised by a supervisory principal of a U.S. broker-dealer. This Research Report is distributed in the U.S. through Plural Securities LLC, 950 3rd Ave, Suite 1702, NY 10022, USA.
GUIDE TO FUNDAMENTAL RESEARCH
The main methods used to evaluate financial instruments and set a target price for 12 months after the investment recommendation are as follows:
- Discounted cash flow (DCF) model or similar methods such as a dividend discount model (DDM)
- Comparison with market peers, using the most appropriate methods for the individual company analysed: among the main ratios used for industrial sectors are price/ earnings (P/E), EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT, price /sales.
- Return on capital and multiples of adjusted net book value are the main methods used for banking sector stocks, while for insurance sector stocks return on allocated capital and multiples on net book value and embedded portfolio value are used
- For the utilities sector comparisons are made between expected returns and the return on the regulatory asset base (RAB)
Some of the parameters used in evaluations, such as the risk-free rate and risk premium, are the same for all companies covered, and are updated to reflect market conditions. Currently a risk-free rate of 4.0% and a risk premium of 5.5% are being used.
Frequency of research: quarterly.
Reports on all companies listed on the S&PMIB40 Index, most of those on the MIDEX Index and the main small caps (regular coverage) are published at least once per quarter to comment on results and important newsflow.
A draft copy of each report may be sent to the subject company for its information (without target price and/or recommendations), but unless expressly stated in the text of the report, no changes are made before it is published. Explanation of our ratings system:
BUY: stock expected to outperform the market by over 25% over a 12 month period;
OUTPERFORM: stock expected to outperform the market by between 10% and 25% over a 12 month period;
NEUTRAL: stock performance expected at between +10% and - 10% compared to the market over a 12 month period;
UNDERPERFORM: stock expected to underperform the market by between -10% and -25% over a 12 month period;
SELL: stock expected to underperform the market by over 25% over a 12 month period.
Prices: The prices reported in the research refer to the price at the close of the previous day of trading
CURRENT INVESTMENT RESEARCH RATING DISTRIBUTIONS
Intermonte SIM is authorised by CONSOB to provide investment services and is listed at n° 246 in the register of brokerage firms.
As at 30 September 2024 Intermonte's Research Department covered 125 companies. Intermonte's distribution of stock ratings is as follows:
|
BUY: |
28.24 % |
|
OUTPERFORM: |
48.09 % |
|
NEUTRAL: |
23.67 % |
|
UNDERPERFORM |
00.00 % |
|
SELL: |
00.00 % |
The distribution of stock ratings for companies which have received corporate finance services from Intermonte in the last 12 months (61 in total) is as follows:
|
BUY: |
55.74 % |
|
OUTPERFORM: |
34.43 % |
|
NEUTRAL: |
09.83 % |
|
UNDERPERFORM |
00.00 % |
|
SELL: |
00.00 % |
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
In order to disclose its possible conflicts of interest Intermonte SIM states that:
Intermonte is acting as financial advisor to Retex S.p.A. - Società Benefit in relation to the voluntary public tender offer launched on Alkemy S.p.A.
Intermonte is acting as financial advisor to Eagle S.p.A. and intermediary responsible for coordinating the collection of sale requests in relation to the sell-out procedure on Greenthesis S.p.A.
Intermonte SIM has provided in the last 12 months / provides / may provide investment banking services to the following companies: Aedes, Aquafil, Civitanavi Systems, Cy4Gate, Esprinet, GPI, Greenthesis (formerly Ambienthesis), Growens, Illimity Bank, Maire Tecnimont, SAES Getters, Tinexta, Unidata and WIIT.
Intermonte SIM is acting as counterparty to WIIT Fin S.r.l. in connection with call and put options having WIIT S.p.A. shares and dividends as reference underlying.
Intermonte SIM is Specialist and/or Corporate Broker and/or Sponsor and/or Broker in charge of the share buy back activity of the following Companies: Abitare In, Alkemy, Anima Holding, Antares Vision, Aquafil, Avio, Banca Ifis, Banca Sistema, Civitanavi Systems, Cyberoo, Cy4gate, DHH, El.En, Elica, Emak, Esprinet, Fimit - Fondo Alpha, Fine Foods, Franchi Umberto Marmi, GPI, Greenthesis (formerly Ambienthesis), IEG, IndelB, Intred, Luve, Misitano & Stracuzzi, Mondadori, Notorious Pictures, Omer, Pharmanutra, Relatech, Reply, Revo Insurance, Reway, Saes Getters, Sciuker Frames, Servizi Italia, Sesa, Seri Industrial, Somec, Star7, SyS-Dat Group, Talea, Tamburi, Tinexta, Tesmec, The Italian Sea Group, TXT, Unidata, Webuild and WIIT.
Intermonte SIM has a contractual commitment to act as liquidity provider on behalf of third parties for the following company: Banca Sistema.
Intermonte SIM performes as a market maker for the following companies: A2A, Anima, Atlantia, Autogrill, Azimut Holding, BAMI, Banca Generali, Banca Mediolanum, Brembo, Buzzi, CNHI, Enel, ENI, Exor, Fineco, FCA, FTMIB, Generali, Italgas, Iren, Intesa Sanpaolo, Leonardo, Mediobanca, Moncler, Mediaset, Pirelli&C, Prysmian, Poste, Ferrari, Saipem, Snam, STM, Tenaris, Telecom Italia, Telecom Italia sav, Terna, UBI, Unicredit, Unipol, UnipolSai.
Intermonte SIM, through Websim, which constitute the digital division of Intermonte, acts as a Financial Content Provider and/or Specialist and/or Corporate Broker on the following companies: Abitare In, Alkemy, Allcore, Almawave, Banca Sistema, Bifire S.P.A., B&C Speakers, Casta Diva Group, Cleanbnb, Cofle, Crowdfundme, Cube Labs, Cy4gate, Cyberoo, DHH, Digital Bros, Digital Magics, Digitouch, Doxee, Ediliziacrobatica Spa, Eles, Elica, Emak, Energy, Esi, Esprinet, Eviso, Fae Technology, Fiera Milano, Fope, FOS, Franchi Umberto Marmi, Giglio Group, GM Leather, GPI, Green Oleo, High Quality Food, Ikonisys, Intercos, Intred, ISCC Fintech, Lemon Sistemi, Lventure Group, Maps Group, Mare Group, Masi Agricola, Matica Fintec, Misitano & Stracuzzi, Neodecortech, Notorious Pictures, Olidata, Osai Automation System, Racing Force Group, Redfish Long Term Capital, Relatech, Reti, Sciuker Frames, SG Company, Solid World Group, Spindox Digital Soul, Talea, Tamburi, Tesmec, Tinexta, TMP Group, Tps Group, Trendevice, Ulisse Biomed, Xenia Hôtellerie Solution Spa Società Benefit, Wiit, Zest.
Intermonte SIM SpA holds net long or short positions in excess of 0.5% of the overall share capital in the following issuers:
Emittente
%
Long/Short
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Neodecortech S.p.A. ha pubblicato questo contenuto il 15 novembre 2024 ed è responsabile delle informazioni in esso contenute. Distribuito da Public, senza apportare modifiche o alterazioni, il 15 novembre 2024 14:03:02 UTC.
