16/01/2025 - Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A.: Aggiornamento dei rating di Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. a seguito del completamento della fusione

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AGGIORNAMENTO DEI RATING DI UNIPOL ASSICURAZIONI S.P.A. A SEGUITO DEL COMPLETAMENTO DELLA FUSIONE

Bologna, 16 gennaio 2025

Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. ("Unipol") comunica l'aggiornamento dei rating di credito a seguito del perfezionamento della fusione per incorporazione di UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A.

A Unipol è stato assegnato un Insurance Financial Strength Rating "Baa2/Stable Outlook" da Moody's, un Insurer Financial Strength Rating "A-/Positive Outlook" da Fitch ed un Financial Strength Rating "A (high)/Stable Trend" da Morningstar DBRS.

Inoltre, Moody's ha aggiornato il rating del debito senior non garantito e il rating dell'emittente a lungo termine di Unipol a "Baa3" dal precedente "Ba1" e il programma di senior unsecured medium- term note a "(P)Baa3" da "(P)Ba1", con Outlook Stabile. Fitch ha migliorato le senior notes di Unipol a "BBB+" da "BBB" e ha confermato il Long-Term Issuer Default Rating a "BBB+", con Outlook Positivo. Morningstar DBRS ha aggiornato l'Issuer Rating di Unipol a "A(high)" da "BBB" con Trend Stabile.

In allegato il testo integrale dei comunicati stampa emessi da Moody's Investors Service, Fitch Ratings e Morningstar DBRS.

Gruppo Unipol

  • uno dei principali gruppi assicurativi in Europa e leader in Italia nei rami Danni (in particolare nei settori Auto e Salute), con una raccolta complessiva pari a 15,1 miliardi di euro, di cui 8,7 miliardi nei Rami Danni e 6,4 miliardi nei Rami Vita (dati 2023). Adotta una strategia di offerta integrata e copre l'intera gamma dei prodotti assicurativi, operando principalmente attraverso la capogruppo Unipol Assicurazioni, UniSalute (leader nella assicurazione sanitaria in Italia), Linear (assicurazione auto diretta), Arca Vita ed Arca Assicurazioni (bancassicurazione Vita e Danni, tramite gli sportelli di BPER, Banca Popolare di Sondrio e altre banche), SIAT (assicurazione trasporti), DDOR (compagnia assicuratrice operante in Serbia). È attivo inoltre negli ecosistemi Mobility, Welfare, Property e gestisce significative attività diversificate nei settori immobiliare, alberghiero (Gruppo UNA) e vitivinicolo (Tenute del Cerro). Le azioni ordinarie di Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. sono quotate alla Borsa Italiana dal 1990 e presenti nel FTSE MIB® e nel MIB® ESG.

Gruppo Unipol

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Rating Action: Moody's Ratings assigns a Baa2 IFSR to Unipol Assicurazioni and upgrades its senior unsecured debt rating to Baa3

3 January 2025

NOTE: On January 15, 2025, the press release was corrected as follows: The first sentence of the second paragraph was revised to reflect the correct effective merger date of 31 December 2024. Revised release follows:

Paris, January 3, 2025 - Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today upgraded the senior unsecured debt rating and the long-term issuer rating of Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. (Unipol, previously known as Unipol Gruppo S.p.A.) to Baa3 from Ba1. We also upgraded the senior unsecured medium-term note program to (P)Baa3 from (P)Ba1. At the same time, we assigned a Baa2 insurance financial strength rating (IFSR) to Unipol. The outlook on Unipol is stable. Previously the ratings were on review for upgrade.

The rating action concludes the review for upgrade on Unipol's ratings initiated on 16 February

2024 and follows the effective merger of UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A (UnipolSai) into Unipol as of 31 December 2024. Unipol which previously was a holding company has become an operating insurance company.

We also withdrew the Baa2 IFSR of UnipolSai and subsequent to this rating action we will move all debt ratings to Unipol from UnipolSai. Please refer to Moody's Ratings' Withdrawal of Credit Ratings Policy, available on our website, https://ratings.moodys.com, for more information.

RATINGS RATIONALE

Unipol's insurance financial strength rating (IFSR) is supported by Unipol group's strong business profile, characterized by its leadership position in the non-life market, a strong control of its distribution thanks to its tied agent network, and relatively low product risk as a result of its focus on retail business and a low average guaranteed rate in the life segment. Other strengths of the group include good profitability and very good capitalisation, as evidenced by a consolidated Solvency II ratio of 224% at the end of September 2024.

These strengths are offset by a concentration of assets and liabilities in Italy (Baa3 stable) which constrains the group's asset quality and financial flexibility. Nonetheless, Unipol is rated one notch above the Italian sovereign rating, reflecting the relative resilience of the group's credit profile to a potential sovereign stress scenario. Unipol has taken steps to reduce its exposure to Italian assets, including to Italian sovereign bonds, which stood at 1.8x of shareholders' equity at December 2023 on a consolidated basis, down from 4.5x at year-end 2016.

Unipol reported good performance in the first nine months of 2024, as evidenced by positive and improving net flows in the life segment, and improving combined ratios in the P&C segment, despite some reserve strengthening.

The upgrade of Unipol's senior debt rating reflects the change of the status of the company, from a pure holding company into an operating company. Hence, the structural subordination previously existing between holders of bonds issued by Unipol and the policyholders of the group

has diminished. The new senior bond rating, which is one notch below the company's IFSR, is in line with our standard practices for senior unsecured debt issued by operating companies.

The Ba1 (hyb) subordinated bond rating of Unipol (previously under UnipolSai), two notches below the IFSR, is in line with our standard practices for subordinated debt issued by operating companies. The Ba2 (hyb) rating on the restricted Tier 1 instrument reflects the company's IFSR but also the group's expected Solvency II ratio. In its latest strategic plan (which ended at YE 2024), the group had a target range of 150-180%, even though this target was consistently exceeded since 2022.

FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The ratings of Unipol could be upgraded (1) in case of improvement in Italy's credit quality, as evidenced by an upgrade of the sovereign rating, or (ii) if Unipol continued to strengthen its resilience to Italian assets, for example through consistently higher Solvency II ratios.

Conversely, the ratings could be downgraded in case of a deterioration in the credit quality of Italy, as evidenced by a downgrade of Italy's sovereign rating. Downward pressure could also result from (i) a significant weakening of the group's market position, (ii) a materially and sustained lower earnings, in particular if this should be driven by lower property and casualty underwriting performance and (iii) lower capital adequacy.

The methodologies used in these ratings were Property and Casualty Insurers published in April 2024 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/rmc-documents/418354, and Life Insurers published in April 2024 and available at https://ratings.moodys.com/rmc-documents/418351.Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on https://ratings.moodys.comfor a copy of these methodologies.

REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

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14 JAN 2025

Fitch Rates Unipol Assicurazioni IFS 'A-', Upgrades Senior Debt to 'BBB+'

Fitch Ratings - Frankfurt am Main - 14 Jan 2025: Fitch Ratings has assigned Italian insurer Unipol

Assicurazioni S.p.A.'s (formerly: Unipol Gruppo S.p.A.; Unipol) an Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) Rating of 'A-' (Strong), upgraded its senior notes to 'BBB+' from 'BBB', and removed the debt from Rating Watch Positive (RWP). At the same time, Fitch has affirmed Unipol's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB+'. All Outlooks are Positive. A full list of rating actions is below.

The rating actions follow the completion of the merger by incorporation of the group's main operating UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A. into the financial holding group, Unipol Gruppo S.p.A., which has subsequently been renamed to Unipol.

The upgrade of Unipol's senior debt reflects the stronger recovery assumptions for operating companies. Unipol's IFS Rating reflects the group's high, albeit declining, investment concentration in Italian sovereign debt, its leading position in the Italian non-life insurance sector and its very strong capitalisation.

Fitch has withdrawn the IFS and IDR of UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A. as this entity no longer exists. Fitch will no longer provide ratings or analytical coverage for UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A.

Key Rating Drivers

Intra-GroupMerger Complete: Unipol is the result of the of the group's main operating entity UnipolSai Assicurazioni S.p.A. and other unrated smaller entities, which was completed in December 2024. As a result, Fitch has upgraded Unipol's senior debt to reflect the stronger recovery assumptions for operating companies. Fitch expects the group's Solvency II ratio to remain broadly unaffected by the merger and cost synergies to be limited.

Financial Leverage to Fall: Fitch expects Unipol's FLR to sharply improve following the group's announcement that its EUR2.5 billion senior debt maturing in 2025-2030 will not be refinanced. The FLR improved to 24% at end-2023 from 27% at end-2022 on a higher capital base and we anticipate a material reduction to around 18% at end-1Q25.

Very Strong Capitalisation: Unipol's Solvency II coverage was very strong at 224% at end-9M24, up from 215% at end-2023. Unipol's capital, as measured by Fitch's Prism Global Model, was stable at 'Very Strong', based on end-2023 data prepared under IFRS17. Fair-value accounting of both assets and liabilities led to a higher capital base and Fitch included the contractual service margin (CSM) as available capital. We estimate Unipol's capitalisation to have remained very strong in 2024 and expect

this to continue in 2025.

Reduced Investment Concentration Risk: Fitch's assessment of Unipol's investment and asset risk is driven by the group's large, albeit reducing, exposure to Italian sovereign debt. Unipol's exposure to Italian sovereign debt creates large concentration risk and potential volatility in capital adequacy, which constrains the ratings.

The group's exposure to Italian sovereign bonds remained broadly unchanged at EUR17.5 billion at end-9M24, compared with EUR17.6 billion at end-2023 and EUR17.5 billion at end-2022, which corresponded to 1.6x the group's capital (consolidated shareholders' equity including the post-tax CSM). We expect Unipol's sovereign investments concentration risk to improve, albeit gradually.

Leading Franchise in Italy: Unipol is the largest motor and health underwriter in Italy and the European leader in the use of telematics in motor insurance. It also has a strong market position in the Italian life insurance sector. The group has a strong franchise and can exploit its pricing power and strong distribution capabilities through its network of agencies and bancassurance agreements.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/ Downgrade

-A downgrade of Italy's Long-Term Local-Currency IDR

-A permanent increase in Unipol's sovereign investment concentration risk to above 2x capital

-The Outlooks on Unipol's ratings may be revised to Stable if Italy's Outlook is revised to Stable and if the group does not redeem its senior debt and its FLR does not improve as a consequence

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

  • A further sustained reduction in Unipol's sovereign investment concentration risk to well below 1.5x capital
  • A sustained improvement in Unipol's FLR to well below 20%, while maintaining very strong capitalisation
  • An upgrade of Italy's Long-Term Local-Currency IDR

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG Considerations

The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity,

either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products#esg-relevance-scores.

Fitch Ratings Analysts

Robert Mazzuoli, CFA

Director

Primary Rating Analyst +49 69 768076 167

Fitch Ratings - a branch of Fitch Ratings Ireland Limited Neue Mainzer Strasse 46 - 50 Frankfurt am Main D-60311

Federico Faccio

Senior Director Secondary Rating Analyst +44 20 3530 1394

Graham Coutts, ACA Senior Director Committee Chairperson +44 20 3530 1654

Media Contacts

Athos Larkou

London

+44 20 3530 1549 athos.larkou@thefitchgroup.com

Rating Actions

ENTITY/DEBT

RATING

RECOVERY

PRIOR

UnipolSai

Assicurazioni

LT IDR

WD

Withdrawn

BBB+

S.p.A.

LT IFS

WD

Withdrawn

A-

Unipol

LT IDR

BBB+

Affirmed

BBB+

Assicurazioni

Disclaimer

Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. ha pubblicato questo contenuto il 16 gennaio 2025 ed è responsabile delle informazioni in esso contenute. Distribuito da Public, senza apportare modifiche o alterazioni, il 16 gennaio 2025 14:17:11 UTC.

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