AWARDS
ING: THE EUR
The EUR/USD rose above 1.160 yesterday, but is clearly awaiting signals from the Fed regarding a possible turnaround. As mentioned, our recommendation for today is neutral on the dollar and, consequently, on the EUR/USD.
However, the inclusion of financial incentives for Iran in the peace agreement (resumption of oil exports, economic development funds, and asset unfreezing) makes the decline in oil prices more sustainable and, consequently, reduces downside risks for the EUR/USD. We expect a consolidation phase in the area between 1.160 and 1.1650 for the time being.
A currency pair against the euro we are closely monitoring this week is the EUR/GBP. It is strengthening slightly this morning after UK inflation surprised slightly to the downside in May. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 2.8% (consensus 3.0%), mainly due to low food inflation, while core inflation rose slightly to 2.6% (consensus 2.7%). The Services Consumer Price Index, however, came in slightly higher than expected at 3.7%. These data do not alter our forecast for a 7-2 vote in favor of holding rates by the Bank of England tomorrow.
Risks, however, remain to the upside for EUR/GBP, as a 30 basis point tightening of the curve by the Bank of England appears overly restrictive, and some political risk premium could resurface after tomorrow's by-election, which should pave the way for Andy Burnham to replace Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
Reichard K. ha commentato il 17-06-2026 alle 19:51
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