AWARDS
JPMorgan's View on Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)
MARKET INTEL US NFP SCENARIO ANALYSIS: Feroli forecasts 75,000 jobs, versus analyst estimates of 85,000. This figure is less significant given the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, which is reflected in lower-than-usual volatility and, consequently, in the scenario outcomes. Drew's baseline scenario calls for a figure between 70,000 and 100,000, and estimates an increase in the S&P index of between 50% and 1%.
US PAYROLL DATA REVISION: In recent years, the annual revision of nonfarm payrolls (CES) data has seen large downward revisions. This trend may finally be coming to an end. The first signs are here
suggest that employment growth in the period from March 2025 to March 2026 could be revised upward by at least 20,000 jobs per month.
